Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 27.630461 30.611177 34.000287 38.190620 43.307566 49.457577 57.579345
2025-05-25 22.988480 26.676790 31.227188 37.426468 45.956704 57.818669 76.734622
2025-06-01 19.969600 23.938386 29.132173 36.756602 48.344422 66.772493 102.653925
2025-06-08 17.812352 21.871225 27.425185 36.076806 50.382106 76.150697 138.341394
2025-06-15 16.236131 20.318454 26.109090 35.589865 52.483029 86.804439 192.471727
2025-06-22 15.045103 19.128839 25.100629 35.313748 54.808296 99.481008 284.002886
2025-06-29 13.949606 17.943083 23.916244 34.476834 55.768692 109.875496 415.322243
2025-07-06 13.548699 17.723937 24.180104 36.184800 62.593461 143.070588 1159.977852
2025-07-13 12.818338 16.929340 23.408419 35.819042 64.634440 164.136743 3802.375881
2025-07-20 12.285839 16.389676 22.989495 36.045391 68.261901 198.205212 NaN
2025-07-27 11.828657 15.927143 22.644112 36.347617 72.278750 244.686956 NaN
2025-08-03 11.367699 15.421303 22.167306 36.285355 75.287439 296.715924 NaN
2025-08-10 10.867235 14.823867 21.483822 35.692295 76.572740 345.214890 NaN
2025-08-17 10.502261 14.425164 21.123611 35.769829 80.234631 444.164842 NaN
2025-08-24 10.127358 13.986032 20.650074 35.512431 82.698491 560.591371 NaN
2025-08-31 9.758862 13.536096 20.119582 35.041890 84.235725 697.557596 NaN
2025-09-07 9.430529 13.136021 19.652254 34.658899 86.045002 905.221998 NaN
2025-09-14 9.145240 12.794033 19.269845 34.433173 88.514868 1277.867451 NaN
2025-09-21 8.820270 12.368187 18.696249 33.648017 88.196362 1577.220515 NaN
2025-09-28 8.769950 12.413111 19.042359 35.296953 100.626292 9771.605055 NaN
2025-10-05 8.524396 12.103869 18.661885 34.950224 102.762767 93063.126776 NaN
2025-10-12 8.347629 11.907529 18.494941 35.169687 108.408785 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.187581 11.733049 18.359691 35.460888 114.949642 NaN NaN